A 6GW gap between Whitehall forecasts has left planners unsure how much electricity the UK’s AI datacentres will require by 2030. The Department for Science, Innovation and Technology (DSIT) projects at least 6GW of AI-capable capacity under its compute roadmap, while the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ) points to a rise of only a few hundred megawatts in its wider commercial services forecasts — a discrepancy that affects grid planning, emissions estimates and the government’s AI growth zones.

Two official forecasts, one big difference DSIT’s compute roadmap, published in 2025, sets a target of at least 6GW of AI-capable datacentre capacity by 2030. The government wants that capacity delivered through a network of AI growth zones around the country, with each hub expected to require hundreds of megawatts of supply. DESNZ’s approach DESNZ, responsible for the UK’s carbon budgets and climate delivery plans, does not appear to hold a separate projection for datacentre growth. Instead, it points to its broader forecast for energy use in the whole commercial services sector, which shows an increase of 528MW between 2025 and 2030. Put another way, DSIT’s standalone target for AI datacentres is roughly ten times larger than the additional energy DESNZ expects the entire commercial services sector to need over the same period. The departments have not publicly reconciled that gap. Campaigners and academics respond - Tim Squirrell, head of strategy at the NGO Foxglove, said the government’s lack of clarity over the environmental impact of datacentres would be "laughable, if it weren’t so alarming." - Cecilia Rikap, a researcher at University College London, said there were two ways to read the misalignment: either the departments have failed to coordinate, or there’s "magical thinking" about the demands of AI and big tech. She added the episode revealed how major corporations influence both the AI value chain and government planning. Foxglove’s action helped expose the difference. In January the NGO lodged an environmental impact assessment request with DESNZ asking how the department had incorporated AI datacentres into its emissions projections. DESNZ replied by pointing to its wider commercial services forecasts and said it held no separate datacentre projection. Grid constraints and a swollen connection queue The mismatch comes as the power grid itself is under strain and the queue for transmission network connections has ballooned. The government says many applications are speculative, slowing genuinely workable projects. Key figures and proposals - Contracted offers in the demand queue rose from 41GW in November 2024 to 125GW by June 2025 (Ofgem/regulator call for input). For context, peak national demand on 11 February 2026 was 45GW. - One industry count found around 140 proposed datacentre schemes seeking about 50GW of capacity between them; roughly 71 of those projects — about 20GW worth — had achieved some form of financial commitment. - To clear the backlog, proposed reforms would tighten the rules for staying in the queue. Ofgem is considering stronger financial requirements for developers — deposits or milestone-linked fees — so projects that don’t progress can be removed faster and capacity can be freed for those that will. The proposed reforms would consult on prioritising "strategically important projects including AI datacentres" to tackle speculative applications that have lengthened the queue and to speed up connections for projects the state deems high priority.

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Ofgem is considering reforms to tighten queue rules and may consult on prioritising "strategically important projects including AI datacentres" — changes that could speed connections for projects the state deems high priority. Energy minister Michael Shanks said: "Industries that can bring real economic benefits are ready and waiting to be powered up, but the queue for grid connections has grown exponentially due to speculative applications."

This article was created with AI assistance.