'My rivals might appear different from outside, but they have only one aim: that Vijay shouldn't become the chief minister,' C Joseph Vijay told a rally in Tirunelveli as Tamil Nadu went to the polls to elect its 234-member assembly. The 51-year-old film star founded Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) in 2024 and is campaigning as an outsider promising to unseat the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) and its long-time rival the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK). His entry has turned a familiar two-way contest into a three-way race with implications for investors, the Tamil diaspora and political partners in London.

Vijay’s gamble: star power meets politics

C Joseph Vijay climbed onto a customised van in Tirunelveli and told a large crowd that his opponents were united solely to stop him becoming chief minister. "My rivals might appear different from outside, but they have only one aim: that Vijay shouldn't become the chief minister," he said, and the crowd chanted his name. He founded TVK in 2024 after a decades-long film career and is now contesting in a state where cinematic fame has often translated into political power.

Vijay’s appeal is simple and direct: high visibility, a built-in fan base and an image unconnected to the entrenched party machines in Chennai. His campaign promises have centred on welfare and a break from usual party bargains. He’s running against two veteran political formations: the DMK under Chief Minister M.K. Stalin and the AIADMK led by Edappadi K. Palaniswami. Both parties are rooted in the Dravidian movement that has dominated Tamil Nadu politics since the 1960s.

That makes the contest unpredictable. A third force can change the arithmetic by splitting votes or by forcing new pre-poll and post-poll bargains. But it’s not obvious that star status alone is enough to win a majority in a 234-seat assembly that rewards disciplined local organisation and caste alliances.

Turnout and vote distribution will decide whether Vijay is a spoiler, a kingmaker or a surprise victor. The state’s electoral map is complex; constituencies vary from urban Chennai districts to rural pockets where local identities and networks matter more than celebrity endorsements.

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Dravidian dominance and the film-politics tradition

Dravidian parties have been in power in Tamil Nadu continuously since 1967. That political culture grew from a social justice movement that rejected caste hierarchies, resisted imposition of Hindi and promoted Tamil identity. The DMK and AIADMK both trace their roots to that movement and to a pattern where mass media — notably cinema — plays a central role in shaping public life.

Film stars have long been major political figures in the state. Vijay is the latest in a line of performers who used celebrity to enter politics, and voters still recall leaders whose images blurred entertainment and governance. That tradition gives Vijay an opening, but the state’s voters have also shown they can be pragmatic and vote on delivery, not just devotion.

Both main parties have spent decades building local cadres. The DMK leads a 14-party Secular Progressive Alliance that includes the Indian National Congress. The AIADMK leads a 10-party National Democratic Alliance that includes the BJP, which is contesting 27 seats; the Congress is contesting 28 seats with the DMK-led bloc. Those seat-sharing arrangements matter in a close contest because small shifts can flip constituencies.

Who wins, who loses: the arithmetic

Vijay’s TVK is young. It lacks the deep ground presence that the DMK and AIADMK have built over decades. Winning alone would require translating screen popularity into candidate-level strength across hundreds of localities — a tall order. But he can affect outcomes by drawing votes from one or both established camps.

That potential for disruption is what many commentators are watching. If Vijay pulls mainly from one side, the other could gain an advantage in marginal seats. If his appeal is broad-based, he could push both main parties into new pre-poll or post-poll bargains, altering coalition math in marginal seats.

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As Vijay himself put it in Tirunelveli: "My rivals might appear different from outside, but they have only one aim: that Vijay shouldn't become the chief minister." Turnout and vote distribution — particularly in marginal constituencies — will determine whether he is a spoiler, a kingmaker or a surprise victor.

This article was created with AI assistance.