Peruvians face a ballot nearly half a metre long. They go to the polls on Sunday hoping to break a run of political chaos that has produced nine presidents in ten years.

A crowded field, an uncertain outcome

More than 27 million Peruvians are eligible to vote in an election that features a record 35 presidential hopefuls and candidates for a newly bicameral congress. The ballot paper is the longest in Peru’s history, and yet length isn't the only sign of how sprawling the contest has become.

Turnout will be watched closely.

None of the contenders commands more than 15% support in recent polls, a fragmentation that pollsters say makes a second round almost inevitable. "This is one of the most unpredictable elections on record," said Urpi Torrado, of the polling company Datum Internacional, pointing to the likely runoff on 7 June.

The crowded field has produced an unusual mix of figures: established politicians, outsiders, a media magnate, a comedian and the daughter of a former president who remains a polarising figure.

Crime and corruption at the top of the list

Voters are prioritising public security and graft. Peru has seen record rates of homicide and extortion, and high-profile corruption cases have left deep scars on public trust.

Four former presidents are currently behind bars, most of them connected to bribery cases linked to the Brazilian construction group Odebrecht.

That legacy shapes both the campaign and the mood on the streets: candidates are offering tough rhetoric on crime and vows to clean up politics, yet many voters say they don't trust traditional institutions or politicians. The demand for change has helped lift outsiders and anti-establishment voices in the opinion polls.

Public anger over safety and corruption is driving voters to spread their support across many candidates instead of rallying behind one clear choice.

Who the front-runners are — and why they matter

Keiko Fujimori, 50, leads narrowly in the polls. She has run for president three times before and reached the runoff in 2011, 2016 and 2021, each time losing by small margins. Her political career is tied to the legacy of her father, Alberto Fujimori, whose government in the 1990s was both authoritarian and later condemned for corruption and human rights abuses; he served 16 years in prison.

Her presence atop the polls once again splits Peruvians.

Mastheads

On the right, Rafael López Aliaga — until recently Lima’s mayor — has led a hardline campaign marked by inflammatory rhetoric and positions against same-sex marriage and abortion for underage rape victims, but his support has waned in the latest surveys.

Meanwhile Ricardo Belmont, a former Lima mayor and media owner, has moved up in the polls by appealing to younger voters with upbeat messaging and the slogan "hugs not bullets", borrowed from Mexico’s Andrés Manuel López Obrador. Gonzalo Banda, a political analyst and doctoral researcher at University College London's Institute of the Americas, described Belmont as an "anti-establishment candidate catching votes from the right, the left and the centre".

The surprise of the campaign is Carlos Álvarez, a comedian whose late entry has shaken up the race. His appeal among voters frustrated with the political class shows how volatile preferences have become.

Campaign tone and the role of misinformation

The campaign has been noisy and at times ugly. Disinformation, hate speech and personal attacks have been part of the public debate, especially on social media. That has complicated voters' attempts to separate promises from posturing.

Rafael López Aliaga has been singled out for a campaign that, critics say, relies on threats against journalists and opponents. Supporters counter that he is offering clarity on social issues and law-and-order credentials.

In such a divided race, loud campaigns can quickly boost a candidate's poll numbers, though those jumps often don't last. Candidates who once trailed can suddenly find themselves in contention; conversely, others can fall away almost as fast.

What’s at stake for Peru — and beyond

Peru’s political turbulence has economic and social consequences. Years of short-lived presidencies and chronic institutional distrust have slowed long-term policy making, and public security problems have weighed on business confidence and everyday life.

Policy uncertainty matters. Investors and firms tend to favour predictability, and persistent turnover at the top can stall investment decisions and reform efforts. The election’s fractured result means that whoever reaches the runoff will face the problem of forging coalitions in an already polarised system.

At the same time, the campaign has shown voters reaching for new options. Outsiders, media personalities and candidates who present themselves as alternatives to established parties are gaining traction. That may force a reconfiguration of political blocs whatever the final result turns out to be.

The source material doesn't mention any direct connections to the United Kingdom. There are no immediate, reported consequences for British policy or trade in the material provided.

The election will test Peru’s stability and reform capacity, which could impact international companies invested there if political turmoil continues.

How the run-off could shape governance

Because no candidate is polling above 15%, a second round is the most likely path to the presidency. The runoff, scheduled for 7 June according to Datum Internacional's Urpi Torrado, will force candidates to broaden their appeals and assemble alliances.

That process could moderate extreme positions or, alternatively, empower them if the winners rely on narrow bases of support. It will also determine whether Peru returns to more conventional politics or continues along a path of fragmented, personality-driven contests.

For voters, the choice in the second round will be less about picking an ideal candidate and more about choosing which set of trade-offs they're willing to accept.

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"This is one of the most unpredictable elections on record," said Urpi Torrado, of Datum Internacional, and a runoff on 7 June is almost certain.

This article was created with AI assistance.