A clerical body is reported to have moved quickly to name Mojtaba Khamenei as Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's successor — a signal of how Iran's political system has prioritised continuity two months into the war. Two months after the first US and Israeli strikes, Iran's political and security systems have both adapted and largely held fast. Key institutions — the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the judiciary and a hardline parliament — remain central to decision‑making even as leadership roles have been reshuffled following a string of high‑profile deaths and reported succession moves.

Leadership turnover, institutional continuity

Two months into the conflict, the roster of Iran's top officials looks different — but the basic power map has not. Several senior figures were killed in the opening phase of the campaign. US President Donald Trump has repeatedly argued that "regime change" has already taken place. Yet the organs of the Islamic Republic kept operating. A clerical body was reported to have moved quickly to select Mojtaba Khamenei as successor after reports about Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's status, and the core institutions pledged loyalty to the supreme leader's office.

The IRGC continues to run military operations. It still exerts broad economic influence through control of natural resources and state-linked enterprises. And it retains capacity to police cities through paramilitary forces such as the Basij. Those facts indicate that while personnel at the top have been replaced, the system the revolution built has shown resilience.

The new secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, comes from the IRGC's old guard and is reported to be close to other senior generals who oppose large concessions to Washington. Zolghadr's appointment follows the reported death of Ali Larijani, a veteran diplomat and ideologue who had been secretary before being killed in March.

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What elected politics now look like

President Masoud Pezeshkian, a relatively moderate figure who won office in 2024 amid record-low turnout, has been limited largely to domestic matters and some diplomatic messaging.

The reformist and moderate circles that backed him — including former presidents and senior diplomats — remain deeply unpopular with hardline elements, according to state reports.

Parliament and the judiciary have remained under hardline control. The courts continue to announce arrests and executions of political opponents and dissidents. State broadcasters and other media outlets are still run or heavily influenced by IRGC-aligned factions, and officials have used available technology — including AI-generated content, by state accounts — to push official narratives.

Security posture and the conduct of war

The IRGC's lead on operations has implications beyond the battlefield. Control of logistics, procurement and local security forces strengthens its hand when the government makes trade-offs. Those trade-offs are appearing now in which concessions, if any, are discussed and by whom. Generals aligned with Zolghadr and other senior commanders have signalled reluctance to make major compromises with Washington.

At the same time, the tempo of conflict and the pattern of strikes have imposed new constraints on civilian authorities. The speed at which the supreme leader's succession was reportedly handled shows how the system will prioritise continuity over public debate when stability appears threatened.

Economic control and revenue streams

  • The IRGC's expanded role in managing natural resources and state-linked companies means revenues that fund operations and patronage networks remain under military influence.
  • For ordinary Iranians, the economic effect is indirect but real: centralised control of revenue sources narrows the policy menu open to any civilian administration and can limit the government's ability to deliver broad relief or economic reforms in the short term.

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Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr's appointment as secretary of the Supreme National Security Council — reported after the death of his predecessor — underlines the IRGC's continued influence over Iran's political and economic decisions two months into the war.

This article was created with AI assistance.