As many as 1.25 million 16 to 24 year olds could be out of education, employment or training within five years, an interim review led by former health secretary Alan Milburn warns. The Office for National Statistics recorded 957,000 NEETs between October and December 2025, and the review says that number could rise unless ministers reset education, health, welfare and employment support. Milburn frames the problem as systemic and notes most young people out of work want a job or training.

For young jobseekers, parents and employers the warning is immediate: the review says that without urgent action the NEET total could reach roughly one in six of 16 to 24 year olds within five years. The interim report, commissioned by Work and Pensions Secretary Pat McFadden, draws on official Office for National Statistics data that recorded 957,000 NEETs from October to December 2025, equivalent to 12.8 percent of the age group, and notes that more than half of those young people were recorded as not looking for work.

What the numbers say

Here's the thing, the report pulls together a series of stark trends. It cites a long term fall of roughly 1.6 million low and medium skilled jobs across the economy, a halving of vacancies in hospitality over the past four years, and a 35 percent drop in apprenticeship starts over the past decade. Those shifts have eroded what Milburn calls the "first rung" of the career ladder, leaving many young people trapped in a Catch 22 where employers demand experience that the labour market offers ever more rarely.

Milburn told audiences the country risks a "lost generation" if the drift continues. He also highlighted survey data used in the review, noting that 84 percent of NEETs surveyed said they wanted a job or training. He uses that figure to reject the notion that rising youth disengagement is primarily a matter of individual will.

The analysis also compares where public money goes. The review calculates that government spending on benefits for young people outstrips investment in programmes to help them into work by a factor of 25 to 1. This report argues that piling isolated jobs initiatives on top of a fragmented system won't work. Instead, it calls for a system reset that aligns schools, the health service, the welfare state and employment services behind a single participation first objective.

Milburn frames the problem as systemic. He says schools, the health service and the welfare state are "no longer fit for purpose" at enabling young people to participate in the labour market.

Mastheads

The interim report paints a picture of disconnection between the institutions that educate and support young people and the employers that might hire them.

Work and Pensions Secretary Pat McFadden, who commissioned the review, welcomed its findings and pointed to current government measures intended to boost youth employment. He highlighted incentives for employers to hire young people, plans to expand apprenticeships and early intervention measures such as enhanced special educational needs support and the removal of the two child benefit cap. The review, however, warns that welfare reform is politically sensitive: it notes last year’s high profile government U turn on proposed cuts to disability support and flags a split between priorities of cost containment and the need to change incentives so employers hire younger workers.

The report is blunt that policy will have to address multiple fronts. Education must better prepare teenagers for work, health services must tackle the mental and physical barriers that prevent participation, and welfare must be redesigned so it doesn't substitute for employment at the point where a job is reachable. The review argues that without such co ordinated change, short term schemes will fail to prevent long term scarring for individuals and for the economy.

That scarring isn't an abstract prediction. Lost years at the start of a career reduce lifetime earnings, hurt savings and pension contributions, and raise the risk of long term benefit dependency. The report makes clear those costs are fiscal as well as social, and that the arithmetic of short term saving through benefit cuts can be undone by higher long term public spending and worse economic outcomes.

Employers are also seen as part of the problem. With fewer entry level roles, firms increasingly ask for experience that young people can't obtain. The review suggests that policy must change employer incentives and create predictable pathways into work so that businesses can recruit young people without bearing the full cost of training and supervision alone.

The interim document stops short of a full blueprint. Its main recommendations will follow later in the year. For now the practical advice it offers is immediate: local careers and employment support services are updating programmes and employer incentives, and the report urges parents and young people to contact local colleges, apprenticeship providers or Jobcentre services to identify training and placement options referenced in the review.

That call to action is modest, but deliberate. The authors stress that many of the changes needed will require sustained political will and money. The report's architects argue that aligning existing spend and refocusing services on participation could deliver better outcomes than new standalone programmes buried in a fragmented system.

Politically the report inserts fresh empirical weight into debates over welfare reform, skills policy and employer incentives. It forces a choice between policies primarily designed to reduce public spending and policies geared to boost youth participation. Milburn’s intervention makes clear where he stands: investment in opportunities for young people isn't a discretionary nicety but a national economic priority.

Related Articles

Milburn published the interim report this week; full recommendations are due later in the year. Originally reported by BBC.

This article was created with AI assistance.