£209. That's how much Cornwall Insight forecasts Ofgem’s price cap will add to the typical dual-fuel household bill for the July-September quarter. The consultancy expects the annual figure to jump from £1,641 for April to June to roughly £1,850, blaming a sharp rise in wholesale gas and electricity prices after fighting in the Middle East and Tehran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Ofgem will publish the formal cap on 27 May 2026, and ministers say they stand ready to intervene if market conditions worsen.

If you pay for gas and electricity, brace for a noticeable increase in your bill from July. Cornwall Insight, the energy consultancy, is forecasting that Ofgem’s price cap for a typical dual-fuel household will rise by about £209 a year, taking the annual cap from £1,641 in the April-June quarter to roughly £1,850 for July to September.

Why the cap is moving up

The jump comes down to wholesale market moves earlier this year. Cornwall Insight links the change to a sharp rise in wholesale gas and electricity costs in February and March after fighting in the Middle East disrupted supplies, and Tehran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz removed a big volume of oil and gas from global markets. Those events tightened supply and pushed wholesale prices higher, which feeds directly into the price cap set by Ofgem.

Cornwall’s principal consultant, Craig Lowrey, said the consultancy’s forecasts shifted dramatically. Where earlier projections showed "virtually no quarter-on-quarter increase," the model now points to "a 13% rise in current bills," he said. The consultancy warned that physical damage to regional energy infrastructure and lingering supply disruption mean a quick return to April’s lower levels is unlikely.

Ofgem sets the price cap every three months by estimating the cost of supplying energy to homes, including the average wholesale market costs from the months before each new cap. That timing matters.

The cap that applies from July to September will reflect the wholesale market moves up to the regulatory update, so sudden changes in prices can feed through with little delay.

Mastheads

The July projection reverses a brief lull households enjoyed under the April cap and follows even grimmer estimates published in March, when analysts warned bills could approach £1,972 a year at the worst points of market turmoil. Cornwall Insight says the immediate consumer pain may be less pronounced through the summer because energy use tends to be lower, but it cautions that the bigger problem will be in October when households use more energy and bills could rise further if wholesale prices remain elevated.

Campaigners and industry figures warn the rise will add pressure to already stretched budgets. Danny Gross, an energy campaigner at Friends of the Earth, described another rise as "a kick in the teeth for the millions of people already struggling with the cost of living." For many families the increase will be felt not as a single lump sum but as higher unit rates from July that compound when colder weather pushes consumption up.

Right now, the government has signalled it can intervene if conditions worsen. Chancellor Rachel Reeves told MPs the new cap was expected to return toward last year’s levels and acknowledged any increase would be felt by families. She announced a package of cost-of-living and industry support measures in the House of Commons and said the government "stand[s] ready to act if market conditions worsen significantly later this year." Reeves also postponed a planned 5p rise in fuel duty for the remainder of the year and introduced targeted help for sectors she told MPs needed support.

Practical implications for households are time sensitive. Ofgem’s formal cap for July to September will be published on 27 May 2026.

If Cornwall Insight’s forecast holds, higher unit rates will apply from the start of the new quarter. Households worried about affordability can use the published cap and supplier information to decide whether to contact their supplier about payment arrangements, to seek a softer repayment plan, or to explore tariff options before the new quarter begins.

Cornwall Insight adds that even if the conflict in the Middle East ended immediately, repairs to damaged infrastructure and disrupted supply chains would probably keep wholesale prices higher for months. That means any relief may be gradual rather than immediate, and the risk of further rises this winter depends on both wholesale markets and the physical state of regional energy networks.

For now the immediate summer effect may be muted for households who use less energy, but the maths the consultancy sets out is stark. A 13% quarter-on-quarter change in bills isn't a marginal move, and the seasonal shift into higher consumption months will magnify its effect on family budgets.

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Ofgem will publish the formal price cap for July to September on 27 May 2026, the moment households can see the official figures and decide whether to contact suppliers about payment plans or switch tariffs before the new quarter begins. Originally reported by The Guardian.

This article was created with AI assistance.