Missile strikes around the Persian Gulf have pushed cargo off the sea and onto Central Asia's roads and railways. The war in Iran has forced a sharp reroute of energy supplies and freight, sending China and other traders toward overland links via the Trans‑Caspian route and the upgraded Baku–Tbilisi–Kars line. The shift transfers strategic leverage from maritime chokepoints to overland corridors, a change that could redraw supply chains and regional influence across Eurasia.

Shipping shocks push cargo inland

Missile strikes and counter‑strikes around the Persian Gulf have disrupted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil and gas chokepoint. Shippers are slowing sailings, holding cargo in port and diverting shipments onto overland routes to avoid the Gulf. Importers report vehicles stuck in Iranian ports as operators hesitate to release shipments amid the strikes, causing multi‑day delays. Longer transit times and extra handling raise freight bills, which typically pass to retailers and households and add to consumer price pressures where wages are low.

China accelerates its push into Central Asia

Beijing is reducing exposure to Middle Eastern sea lanes and politically sensitive northern passages by boosting land links with Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Road transport now carries a growing share of China’s trade with Central Asia, driven by state‑level projects and border links that cut reliance on maritime chokepoints.

Key elements of the shift include:

  • Support for the Middle Corridor (Trans‑Caspian International Transport Route) linking China to Europe via Kazakhstan and the Caspian Sea, shortening transit by about 2,500km versus some northern routes.
  • Major upgrades to the Baku–Tbilisi–Kars (BTK) railway completed in early 2024, which raised annual capacity from roughly 1 million tonnes to 5 million tonnes and added 105km of new track plus a 4,070‑metre tunnel at the Turkish border.
  • A joint venture established in 2024 between Azerbaijani Railways (ADY) and Georgian partners to manage the 184km Georgian section, with planners forecasting about 17 million tonnes annually by 2034 and long‑term capacity targets as high as 50 million tonnes.

These changes have attracted freight forwarders looking to shorten routes and reduce geopolitical exposure.

Southbound ambitions meet fresh danger

Several Central Asian governments have invested in southbound corridors through Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan to reach Arabian Sea ports such as Chabahar and cut dependence on Russian routes. Proposals have included an Uzbekistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan rail link and ties into Iranian ports.

The current crisis highlights how instability in transit states can quickly undermine these routes. Analysis by regional planners and independent commentators notes that renewed instability in Iran and neighbouring countries threatens the reliability of southbound corridors and complicates long‑term trade planning.

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Planners forecast roughly 17 million tonnes annually on the Georgian section by 2034, underscoring Central Asia’s ambitions as an overland transit hub — even as southbound routes through Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan remain susceptible to instability.

This article was created with AI assistance.