Attacks on Gulf chemical plants have badly damaged fertiliser production. The United Nations says the fallout may last well beyond the fighting.
How the conflict is disrupting food systems
Fertiliser output in the Gulf has taken a direct hit after strikes on chemical facilities, and that has set off alarm bells at the United Nations. Mourad Wahba, acting executive secretary of the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia, warned that the consequences could be long lasting. The immediate mechanism is straightforward: fewer fertilisers mean tighter supply for farmers worldwide, and that tends to push prices up.
Energy costs also play a big role.
Higher fuel and energy prices — driven in part by the US-Israel military campaign against Iran and the wider risk to Middle Eastern energy infrastructure — add another layer of pressure. Transport gets more expensive, production costs climb, and shipping restrictions make it harder to move agricultural goods where they're needed. Those two shocks can combine: fertiliser scarcity and pricier energy raise the overall cost of producing food and getting it to market.
Shipping lanes are already under strain. Restrictions and the threat of attacks make insurers and carriers cautious, and that slows deliveries of both inputs and finished foodstuffs. Avinash Kishore, senior research fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute in New Delhi, explained that disruptions earlier in supply chains often reverberate through markets for months or years, not just weeks.
Where the pain shows first
Countries that rely heavily on imported food and fertiliser are especially vulnerable. Many low- and middle-income nations buy fertilisers from Gulf producers; when output falls, so does availability elsewhere. That affects planting decisions and yields in the next season. Steve Keen, economist and honorary professor at University College London, pointed out that economies with tight margins for farmers or thin domestic storage will feel shortages sooner.
Food markets are complex and interconnected.
Global commodity markets link distant producers, traders and retailers. A shortfall in one region raises prices on exchange markets, which then shifts buying patterns. Countries with deeper pockets or strategic stores can outbid poorer buyers, leaving the most vulnerable with less. That dynamic is why U.N. Officials are warning about lasting effects: the initial shock can cause a cascade of policy responses — export curbs, emergency purchases, and political pressure — that reshape markets long after fighting ends.
Even when physical shipments resume, the timing matters. Crop cycles are seasonal. If fertiliser shortages hit planting or early growth stages, the impact shows up at harvest and then on grocery shelves months later. That delay is one reason the U.N. Emphasised the potential for prolonged disruption.
Economic and political fallout
Higher costs at the farm gate translate into higher prices for consumers. Retailers pass on some, though not all, of those increases. But many households are close to their budgets already. Rising food bills can become a political flashpoint, especially in countries where staples take a large share of household spending. Governments may feel pressured to act — by subsidising food, restricting exports, or negotiating supply deals — choices that have knock-on effects for trade and diplomacy.
Right now, traders and insurers are already recalculating risk. That affects freight costs and availability. Those adjustments feed back into the price of grain and processed foods, and that raises the chance of volatility in markets that once seemed stable.
For Britain, the effects will be mostly indirect but still meaningful. The UK imports a sizeable share of its food, either as finished products or as ingredients, and supermarkets source goods from across the globe. If fertiliser shortages and shipping curbs push up global commodity prices, British shoppers will likely pay more at the tills. Steve Keen noted that interconnected markets mean a shock anywhere can show up on shelves in London and Glasgow.
There are domestic agricultural angles too. British farmers rely on imports of some fertiliser types; tighter global supplies push up input costs for growers here, increasing production costs for cereals, vegetables and other crops. That makes British agriculture more expensive to run, and could accelerate consolidation or push marginal farms out of business. Politically, that creates pressure on ministers to support farmers or to seek trade deals that stabilise supply.
What governments and markets are doing
Responses are already underway. Some countries institute emergency measures to secure food supplies, while others look to diversify their fertiliser sources. International organisations including the U.N. Are tracking risks and urging caution against knee-jerk export bans that would worsen global shortages, Mourad Wahba said.
Coordination is important.
Policy choices now will shape the next planting seasons. Supplies can be rerouted, and alternative producers may step up, but that takes time. Long-term adaptations — such as changing cropping patterns, improving storage and boosting local fertiliser production — are possible but costly. Avinash Kishore stressed that poorer countries have fewer buffers to make those adjustments, which is why early international support and market transparency are key to preventing humanitarian shortfalls.
Private actors are moving too. Traders are seeking alternative routes and chartering ships to bypass bottlenecks, while some fertiliser firms are accelerating contracts with non-Gulf suppliers. Insurance costs for vessels in contested waters have risen, increasing the bill for bulk transporters and, buyers of agricultural commodities.
How long could effects last?
Predicting the duration is hard. The U.N. Message was blunt: the impact could outlast the conflict. That means months, perhaps years, depending on how quickly production and trade stabilise. Agricultural systems operate on seasons; a missed fertiliser cycle can't be fixed overnight. Recovery depends on rebuilding damaged plants, restoring shipping confidence and unwinding any policy measures that tightened markets.
Sure, some supply will be replaced elsewhere, and markets tend to adjust. But those shifts are rarely smooth. If countries impose export controls or buyers horde stocks, the short-to-medium-term picture could remain strained. And political pressures in affected countries may lead to decisions that further restrict trade or redirect supplies, prolonging disruption.
On the positive side, the shock may prompt investment in resilience: more storage, broader supplier networks, and renewed attention to domestic production capacity. Yet those shifts take months or years to deliver benefits — well after the immediate crisis.
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The United Nations warns that the impact could last well beyond the conflict.
This article was created with AI assistance.
