Mortgage revenue within Equifax's U.S. information business jumped roughly 60% year-on-year in January and February — but the company says the Iran conflict has since pushed yields higher and weakened mortgage activity. Equifax kept its 2026 guidance after a stronger-than-expected first quarter, reporting solid revenue and adjusted EPS while warning of rate sensitivity.

Solid quarter, cautious tone According to Equifax's earnings release and remarks by CEO Mark Begor, the company reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.86 for the first quarter, beating consensus, and posted year-on-year revenue growth. Revenue was $1.65 billion, roughly 14% higher than the same quarter a year earlier. Begor said the quarter was “principally driven by very strong U.S. Mortgage revenue growth of 38%, principally in January and February before rates increased from the Iran conflict.” The U.S. Information Solutions (USIS) segment expanded broadly, with mortgage-related receipts a notable contributor; one company disclosure said mortgage revenue was up about 60% year-on-year within USIS, concentrated in January and February. Key reported guidance and metrics - Revenue: $1.65 billion in Q1 (about 14% y/y growth) - Constant-dollar revenue growth target for 2026: ~10% - Reported full-year revenue guidance: $6.69 billion to $6.80 billion - Adjusted EPS guidance for 2026: $8.34 to $8.74 Equifax said it adjusted reported revenue up by $25 million and raised full-year adjusted EPS by $0.04, attributing those small changes to favourable foreign-exchange movements rather than stronger operational momentum. How the Iran war changed the picture The macro backdrop shifted after the quarter began. The IMF recently trimmed its global growth forecast for 2026 and linked the change to disruptions tied to the conflict in and around Iran, noting higher energy prices and risks to supply routes such as the Strait of Hormuz. The fund has modelled scenarios in which energy-price shocks push inflation and force central-bank tightening. Those developments fed directly into mortgage markets: as investors priced in higher inflation and risk premia, bond yields rose, which lifted mortgage rates and damped pipeline activity that had driven Equifax’s early-quarter outperformance. Market and political implications Equifax faces two linked tasks: delivering on growth targets across its information and verification services, and managing the operational exposure to rapidly changing rates and energy costs if the conflict flares again. Management kept the company’s constant-dollar revenue growth target near 10% for 2026 while flagging sensitivity to mortgage-market dynamics amid higher yields. Why this matters Equifax’s recent outperformance was powered by mortgage pipelines that are highly sensitive to bond yields; a sustained rise in yields — driven by energy-price shocks or geopolitical risk — can quickly reduce mortgage activity and chip into the company’s growth assumptions for 2026.

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Begor said Equifax will keep its constant-dollar revenue growth target at about 10% for 2026, while warning that mortgage activity weakened after rates rose amid the Iran conflict.

This article was created with AI assistance.